Global Systemic Crisis: GEAB Bulletin, Major Alert For Second Half of 2011

Global Systemic Crisis: GEAB Bulletin, Major Alert For Second Half of 2011

In fact, for several months the world has experienced an almost unbroken succession of geopolitical, economic and financial shocks which, according to LEAP/E2020, constitute the warning signs of a major traumatic event that we analyze in this issue. At the same time the international system has now passed the stage of structural weakening to enter a phase of complete decay where old alliances are breaking down, whilst new communities of interest are emerging very quickly. Finally, any hope for significant and lasting global economic recovery has now evaporated (1) whilst the Western pillar’s indebtedness, especially the US, has reached a critical level unparalleled in modern history (2).

Stimulus Duds, Bailout Blanks, By Richard Heinberg

Stimulus Duds, Bailout Blanks, By Richard Heinberg

There is no “silver bullet,” no magic solution that will turn back the clock to an era of abundant resources and easy growth. For now, all that governments can do is buy time through further deficit spending—ideally, using that time to build infrastructure that will continue to function in the coming era of reduced flows of energy and resources. Meanwhile, we must all find ways to come out from under a burden of debt that will otherwise crush us. The inherent contradiction within this prescription is obvious but unavoidable.

Rising Oil Prices And Municipal Bond Defaults, By Gail Tverberg

Rising Oil Prices And Municipal Bond Defaults, By Gail Tverberg

“Municipal” bonds include bonds issued by states, as well as bonds issued by cities and by many types of smaller entities, such as hospitals and toll roads. To date, everyone has assumed that there is not much risk of default, and even if there is, someone else will handle it. But if one looks at the long term oil situation, and the problems states and cities are having already, it is pretty clear that the debt default problem is likely to get worse over time, and there is really no one set up to handle the default risk.